Max Verstappen, with his impressive straight-line speed advantage, looks set to dominate the Monza track and capture an unprecedented 10th consecutive win. He has the odds of 1/4 in his favour. Red Bull‘s car, which is renowned for its efficient downforce and strong engine, makes Monza an ideal battleground. Hence, Red Bull‘s chances of securing a 1-2 finish stand high at 4/5 odds.
While the focus is on Verstappen, there are other players further down the grid that may leverage the track’s suitability to their cars.
The pole performance is pivotal to watch. Although Verstappen has a nine-race win streak, he has been on the pole position only six times. This signifies that there is room for an upset on a Saturday afternoon.
The other three pole positions were bagged by Sergio Perez, Lewis Hamilton, and notably, Charles Leclerc who triumphed at Spa, another venue that favours cars with superior straight-line speed. Therefore, the Monegasque driver may be one to watch.
Leclerc’s team, Ferrari, was lacking in performance at Zandvoort, but the Monza circuit’s layout might play to its strengths. With Leclerc securing a pole position the previous year and Sainz right behind him in third place, a repeat performance is a distinct possibility. To cheer up their home crowd, the team could utilise team orders to reap the benefits of slipstreaming. Therefore, there is value to be had with Leclerc at 9-1 and Sainz 18-1.
Monza is notorious for springing surprises, having been won by five different drivers over the last five years. Despite Red Bull‘s superiority, Ferrari and Mercedes’ top speeds make them formidable contenders. Leclerc and Hamilton are some formidable challengers, with Hamilton clocking in at 16/1 odds for a victory and Leclerc at 34/1.
Another contender to watch is Sergio Perez, who despite setbacks, has managed to climb his way to the podium with seven top three finishes. An outside chance for a podium finish is also Charles Leclerc despite being less favoured than Hamilton, Lando Norris and Fernando Alonso, making his 9/5 odds a value bet, with Sainz standing at 28/5.
Switching our focus to the points players, McLaren has had an inconsistent season, largely due to the compatibility of the circuit to its car. In the running for points, Mercedes, Ferrari and Aston Martin have been seen as better bets. Hamilton’s odds stand at 3/10 and Russell’s odds at 67-100, but Sainz offers the best value bet at 27/25.
The top 10 points finishers could possibly come down to who can overtake the most proficiently. Alonso and Stroll may prove valuable, as they have consistently scored points throughout the season.
The weather could also be a deciding factor. Rainy conditions could give McLaren an edge, but in dry conditions, Sainz at 27/25 seems to be a good bet. There are several others in the mix, like Pierre Gasly who finished on the podium at his last race. His odds are 8/1 to be in the top six at Monza.
Values can also be found by betting on which team will retire a car first or which driver will be the first to stop at the pits, given how often first lap incidents define the race.
Please note, odds were correct at the time of writing.